Market Intelligence What are the leading causes of today's energy shortages? What role does energy security play? Are new developments in energy efficiency and energy storage the answer? This report reviews these issues and discusses some of the emerging smart technologies that will address generation capacity shortfalls. Energy security can be defined as the role of affordable, reliable sources of energy in the overall national security of a given country. As demand rises and reserves become costlier, governments will increasingly find energy security to be a challenging goal. Political factors (both domestic and foreign), and environmental concerns provide further complications. Trends to date indicate that if solutions to these problems are found they will likely be a networked basket of diverse, non-centralized "smart tech" approaches. This report frames the state of energy generation today and discusses some of the likely candidate technologies that will form the solution. These include new developments in energy storage and energy efficiency.
Primary Focus This report provides essential insight into the reasons for power generation shortfalls and detailed intelligence on the technologies that may address them. Major topics covered include: • Energy Security A briefing on the factors that effect a state's capacity to ensure energy security • Power Generation Capacity o Including an analysis of current global capacity and future forecasts • Fuel Reserves o With a look at global supplies of oil, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydrand uranium • Today's Power Grid Information on the composition of the modern grid • Renewable Energy Including the challenges of integrating renewable energy intthe grid • Energy Storage A briefing on the major companies and technologies • Energy Efficiency Products A briefing on the major companies and technologies
Reasons tPurchase Smart Technology Report • Gain an in-depth understanding of the crucial issues surrounding energy security • Gain insight intcurrent and future global power generation capacity • Access data on global fuel reserves • Understand the composition of the modern power grid • Understand the challenges associated with integrating renewable energy intthe grid • Be briefed on new developments in storage technology and the major companies involved • Be briefed on new developments in energy efficiency products and the major companies involved
Report Highlights Typically, discussions of energy security focus on reserves of oil and gas. "Peak oil" (or the point at which oil production will begin tdecline) does not appear thave occurred yet, with actual reserves of oil and gas expected tlast another 46 and 59 years respectively based on current rates of consumption. This is in part due tnew discoveries and advancements in technology that makes the extraction of known but challenging reserves cost-effective. However, companies are growing more reluctant texplore and develop new reserves due tvolatile prices and uncertainty over future demand. Geopolitical risk can influence prices as well, with events in unstable regions rippling outwards taffect other nations. Advancements in energy storage technologies could mean better integration of intermittent renewable energy intthe grid. Modern grid systems require predicable and controllable flows of energy that cannot be provided by renewable sources unless the intermittent generation was stored for later use. In addition, storage technologies could allow delay in the production of additional generating capacity, mitigating the need for expensive "peaking" plants tmeet spikes in demand. Energy efficiency, particularly regarding power generation, industrial demand, transportation and the residential or commercial sector can alshelp address these issues. The reuse of waste heat in power generation and industrial facilities, micrhybrid vehicles equipped with stop/start technology, advances in conventional vehicle engines, advances in lighting and re-evaluations of indoor climate control practices are just some of the up-and-coming developments that may be major players in the future.
Contents 1. Introduction 14 2. Executive Summary . 15 3. Energy Security 16 4. Power generation capacity 18 5. Growing Shortage . 30 Oil 30 Natural Gas 37 Oil and Gas 42 Coal 45 Biomass 46 Hydr 47 Uranium 47 6. The Grid . 48 Power Demand 48 Base load 49 Peak load 49 Intermediate load 49 Renewables 50 Renewable PortfoliStandards . 51 Renewable Issues and the grid 53 Intermittency and variability . 53 Capacity factor 53 Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) 54 Capacity credit 54 Spinning reserve 55 7. Renewables . 56 Integration costs . 57 Balancing supply and demand 59 Import/export electricity . 60 Demand response 61 Back up 62 Storage 62 8. Current state of storage . 63 Investment . 65 Development 67 Economics . 69 9. Storage Technologies . 75 Mechanical Storage 75 Pumped storage 75 Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) 83 Flywheel . 92 Electrochemical storage . 94 Batteries . 95 Lead-acid batteries 98 Advanced lead-acid batteries . 99 Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries 99 Nickel cadmium (NiCd) batteries 103 Nickel-metal hydride (NMH) batteries . 104 Sodium sulphur (NaS) batteries . 104 Sodium Nickel Chloride (NaNiCl) batteries 105 Flow batteries 106 Capacitor . 108 Electric double-layer capacitor system 108 Electromagnetic storage 111 Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) 111 Fuel cells . 113 Hydrogen Fuel Cell 114 Electric vehicles 120 Start-stop market 154 Thermal storage 171 Concentrating Solar Power 172 Parabolic Trough 172 Parabolic Dish Systems 173 Central Receiver Systems - Solar Tower 173 Solar Chimney Power Plants 174 Types of storage . 176 Sensible heat storage 176 Concrete . 176 Molten salt . 176 Latent heat storage/phase change materials 178 Inorganic PCMs 179 Organic PCMs . 179 Development of TES for CSP 180 Single-tank Thermocline . 181 Direct molten-salt heat transfer fluid . 181 Hot/Cold storage . 181 10. Energy Efficiency Products 183 Power generation 183 Siemens 183 Alphabet Energy . 184 Echogen Power Systems 184 Electra Therm 185 Ener G Rotors 186 GMZ Energy . 186 Ormat 187 O-Flexx Technologies 188 Phononic Devices 188 Pratt & Whitney 188 Recycled Energy Development (RED) 189 Transphorm 189 Transportation sector 190 Ecomotors 190 Transonic Combustion . 191 XL Hybrids . 192 Residential, industrial and commercial industries 192 Automated monitoring and targeting (AM&T) 193 Boiler controls 193 Building management systems (BMS) 193 Advanced Telemetry . 193 Enistic 193 EnOcean . 194 PassivSystems 195 Powerhouse Dynamics 197 Demand response management (demand management) . 197 Comverge 198 HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) controls 199 BuildingIQ 199 Suntulit . 200 Insulation . 201 Aspen Aerogels 201 Ecovative 201 eTime energy 202 Guardian . 202 Indow Windows 202 Lighting . 202 Azzurr 204 Bridgelux . 204 d.light design 204 Digital Lumens . 206 EcoFit 207 EcoSpark 207 Kateeva 208 Kaneeka 208 Lattice Power 208 Lemnis Lighting 208 Lumiette 209 Lumiotec . 210 Luxim 210 Novalex 210 Osram Sylvania 210 Lighting daylight phasing control . 210 Adura Technologies 211 Encelium . 212 Lumenergi 214 Redwood Systems . 214 Lighting occupancy control . 215 Adura Technologies 215 Encelium . 215 Sensor Switch 216 Remote energy controls 216 Tenrehte Technologies 216 Thinkec . 217 Variable speed devices (VSD) . 217 Voltage power optimisation 217 powerPerfector 218 Vphase . 218 Other 218 THT Heat Transfer Technology 218 Xergy 218 Multinational companies with multiple energy efficiency products . 221 Eaton 221 GE 221 Honeywell 227 Johnsons Controls . 227 Panasonic 229 Philips 230 Wireless Kinetically Powered Energy Devices 231 Wireless Solar Powered Photosensor . 231 Occupancy Sensing Compatibility . 231 Intelligent Transceiver . 231 MesoOptics . 233 Schneider Electric 233 Siemens 233 Energy efficient models of conventional products 234 Data centres 234 Core4 Systems 234 Sentilla . 234 Dryers 235 Hydromatic Technologies 235 Heating and cooling 235 Calmac . 236 Coolerad 236 Climate Well . 239 Hitachi 239 IceCycle 239 Ice Energy 239 MagLev Retrofit Solutions . 240 Windows and glass 241 Sage Electronics . 241 Serious Energy 241 Soladigm . 241 New Energy Technologies . 241
11. Sources 242
Tables Table 4-1: Electricity supply disruptions for the first three quarters of 2011 18 Table 4-2: Ofgem's four scenarios for the electricity grid in the UK 26 Table 4-3: Impact of different stresses for Ofgem's four grid scenarios 27 Table 6-1: Three main types of electricity demand . 50 Table 6-2: Typical capacity factors for different generating technologies 53 Table 7-1: Variability factors for intermittent renewable energy sources . 56 Table 7-2: Summary of US wind integration cost studies 58 Table 8-1: Energy storage technologies by development status . 68 Table 8-2: R&D Timelines for Emerging Energy Storage Options 68 Table 8-3: Latest prices for energy storage in Great Britain and Germany 70 Table 8-4: Energy storage technologies 70 Table 8-5: Energy storage characteristics by application 71 Table 8-6: Projected incremental energy delivery cost at 7% discount rate in USD 90 million facilities (ignoring energy cost) for 2015 technology . 73 Table 8-7: Comparison of bulk storage systems 73 Table 9-1: Typical values for various pumped-storage plants 77 Table 9-2: Status of selected pumped storage projects at the end of 2010 80 Table 9-3: CAES plants in operation or planned . 85 Table 9-4: Comparison of CAES systems 86 Table 9-5: Comparison of batteries . 96 Table 9-6: Comparison of different battery energy storage systems . 97 Table 9-7: Selected battery energy storage plants in use 98 Table 9-8: Lithium-ion battery characteristics by chemistry . 102 Table 9-9: Comparison of the applications of SMES systems 111 Table 9-10: Fuel cell types 114 Table 9-11: Comparison of net storage capacities of large scale storage technologies 119 Table 9-12: International support for fuel cells 120 Table 9-13: Regulations on fuel economy and CO2 emissions in the US and EU 120 Table 9-14: Key differences between PHEVs and BEVs 122 Table 9-15: Specifications of several plug-in vehicles sold or expected tbe sold in 2011 123 Table 9-16: Plug-in Vehicle Tracker . 129 Table 9-17: Manufacturers of BEV/PHEVs and partnering battery manufacturers . 150 Table 9-18: Incentives for electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low emission vehicles 159 Table 9-19: US state incentives for electric vehicle . 163 Table 9-20: Key Data and Figures for Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles 168 Table 9-21: Comparison of the main CSP technologies 175 Table 9-22: Sensible storage materials, solid and liquid, temperature, average heat capacity and media cost . 177 Table 9-23: Selected low temperature inorganic salt hydrate PCMs 178 Table 9-24: Selected low temperature inorganic salt hydrate PCMs , with melting points 179 Table 9-25: Selected low temperature organic PCMs , with melting points 180 Table 10.1: Ormat's recovered energy generation projects . 187 Table 10.2: Electricity consumption and potential electrical energy savings in the UK service sector 203 Table 10.3: Comparison of Lemnis Pharox bulbs texisting light bulbs 208 Table 10.4: Comparison of Lumiette's XCELLUME with compact fluorescent lighting . 209 Table 10.5: Comparison of Lumiette's XCELLUME with incandescent lighting 210 Table 10.6: GE's energy efficient products 223 Table 10.7: Cooleradair conditioning products 238
Figures Figure 3-1: Supply chain in the gas sector 16 Figure 4-1: Actual and projected world electricity, capacity, generation and consumption, MW, 1990 t2050 20 Figure 4-2: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in the G8 and BRIC countries, MW, 1990 t2020 . 21 Figure 4-3: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Middle East, MW, 1990 t2020 23 Figure 4-4: Actual and projected world generation capacity by type, MW, 1990 t2020 25 Figure 4-5: Peak load reduction and utility costs per energy saved, 1989 t2008 26 Figure 4-6: Key timings for projects tfulfil future shortfalls in the UK's electricity sector . 28 Figure 5-1: Oil production and consumption, thousand barrels per day, 1965 t2010 30 Figure 5-2: Oil refining capacity, throughput and oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 t2010 31 Figure 5-3: Refining margins in US Gulf Coast (USGC), North West Europe (NWE - Rotterdam) and Singapore for different generic refinery configuration (cracking, hydrocracking or coking), USD per barrel, Q1 1992 tQ4 2010 32 Figure 5-4: Oil production in thousand barrels and proven reserves in billion barrels in OPEC and major non-OPEC countries at the end of 2010 . 33 Figure 5-5: Proven oil reserves in North America and in Major European producing countries, billion barrels, 1980 t2010 . 34 Figure 5-6: Proven oil reserves by region, billion barrels, 1980 t2010 . 34 Figure 5-7: Net crude oil and oil product trade movements in 2010, thousand barrels per day 35 Figure 5-8: Net oil imports for the US and Europe, thousand barrels per day, 1980 t2010 35 Figure 5-9: Global biofuel production, thousand barrels per day, 2000 t2010 36 Figure 5-10: Natural gas production and consumption, bcm, 1970 t2010 37 Figure 5-11: Proven natural reserves by region, tcm, 1980 t2010 . 38 Figure 5-12: Natural gas production and consumption in the US and Russia, bcm, 1970 t2010 39 Figure 5-13: Actual and projected share of primary energy by fuel type, 1970 t2030 41 Figure 5-14: Natural gas production and consumption in China and India, bcm, 1970 t2010 42 Figure 5-15: Oil and gas consumption and imports as a percentage of consumption for China, Europe and the US, 1990 t2030 43 Figure 5-16: China's territorial claim in the South China Sea 44 Figure 5-17: Global coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 t2010 . 45 Figure 5-18: Indian coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 t2010 46 Figure 5-19: Global nuclear consumption based on gross generation, Mtoe, 1965 t2010 . 47 Figure 6-1: Base, Intermediate and Peak Load by time of day . 50 Figure 6-2: Influence of wind power on power control margin at night . 51 Figure 6-3: RPS policies and goals in the US states . 52 Figure 6-4: Capacity factors by month for wind power for Denmark, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands . 54 Figure 7-1: Output of large PV plant over one day, with rapid variability due tclouds 56 Figure 7-2: Output from wind turbines during the day with storage capacity . 57 Figure 7-3: Smoothing effect of wind power in Germany . 59 Figure 7-4: Flexibility supply curve 60 Figure 7-5: Balancing demand and supply through the interconnected grid . 61 Figure 7-6: Obstacles tenergy storage and demand response . 62 Figure 8-1: Worldwide current installed capacity, MW 63 Figure 8-2: Storage technologies by capacity 64 Figure 8-3: Positioning of Energy Storage Technologies 64 Figure 8-4: Worldwide installed storage capacity for electrical energy at the end of 2010, MW . 65 Figure 8-5: Grid-scale and all storage deals, 2006 t2010 65 Figure 8-6: Energy Storage IPOs, 2006 t2010 66 Figure 8-7: Venture investment in clean tech sector by quarter, Q4 2009 tQ1 2011 67 Figure 9-1: Energy storage applications and technologies . 75 Figure 9-2: Principle of pumped hydrstorage systems . 76 Figure 9-3: Diagram of a pumped storage configuration . 76 Figure 9-4: Growth of adjustable speed pumped hydr 78 Figure 9-5: Underground pumped hydr 79 Figure 9-6: Cost breakdown of pumped hydr 80 Figure 9-7: Schematic of CAES plant with underground compressed air storage . 84 Figure 9-8: Principle of the CAES system 84 Figure 9-9: CAES system in Huntorf, Germany 86 Figure 9-10: Salt structures and existing gas storage site in Europe 88 Figure 9-11: Overview of geological formations in continental US, showing potential CAES siting opportunities based on EPRI geologic studies . 89 Figure 9-12: Energy Bag 90 Figure 9-13: Principle and structure of flywheel 93 Figure 9-14: Operational results of wind power with flywheel 93 Figure 9-15: Comparison of specifications of existing flywheel systems . 94 Figure 9-16: Power density as a function of energy density for energy storage options . 94 Figure 9-17: Idealised load and battery systems . 95 Figure 9-18: Reaction Mechanism of Lead-based Cells 99 Figure 9-19: Specific energy and specific power of different battery types . 100 Figure 9-20: Reaction Mechanism of Li-ion Cells . 101 Figure 9-21: Future of the electric car and lithium ion battery markets . 103 Figure 9-22: Nickel-Based Cells 104 Figure 9-23: Reaction Mechanism of Sodium-based Cells 106 Figure 9-24: ZBB Energy's Zn/Br flow system 108 Figure 9-25: Principle of electric double-layer capacitor 109 Figure 9-26: Structures of capacitors 109 Figure 9-27: Principle of SMES 111 Figure 9-28: Structure of SMES system 112 Figure 9-29: Cost estimation of SMES as a function of stored energy 113 Figure 9-30: Fuel cell 114 Figure 9-31: Comparison of the Honda FXC Clarity with the BYD-E6 and Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric vehicles 116 Figure 9-32: Platinum prices, 1992 t2011 . 117 Figure 9-33: Location of hydrogen production facilities in Europe 119 Figure 9-34: Comparison of different electric power train configurations . 121 Figure 9-35: Cost of EVs and PHEVs over Conventional Vehicles . 123 Figure 9-36: Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario, million sales per year 124 Figure 9-37: Annual global BEV and PHEV sales in BLUE Map scenario, passenger LDV sales millions, 2010 t2050 . 125 Figure 9-38: Lithium-ion battery price forecast, USD per kWh 126 Figure 9-39: Development of alternative transportation options 127 Figure 9-40: Rollout of electric vehicle models 128 Figure 9-41: Electric vehicles and their expected launch date ontthe US market 128 Figure 9-42: Government target and BEV/PHEV production/sales reported by Original Equipment Manufacturer 151 Figure 9-43: BEV/PHEV number of models offered and sales per model through 2020 . 152 Figure 9-44: Illustrative cost/benefit timplement hybridisation technologies 153 Figure 9-45: Additional capital cost of hybrid electric vehicles compared tconventional gasoline and diesel vehicles, EUR 154 Figure 9-46: Global market estimates for sales of start-stop or micro-hybrid units, thousand units, 2010 t2015 155 Figure 9-47: XL Hybrid technology 156 Figure 9-48: Battery cost decline versus production 156 Figure 9-49: Projected cost of electric vehicle batteries in the US, USD, 2010 t2030 157 Figure 9-50: Global transportation trend, million barrels per day of oil equivalent (mbdoe), 1980 t2030 . 158 Figure 9-51: Aggregated national targets for BEV/PHEVs 159 Figure 9-52: Upfront Price Support for Low-Carbon Vehicles 166 Figure 9-53: Light-duty vehicle fuel economy . 167 Figure 9-54: Public RD&D (Research, Development and Deployment) spending on BEV/PHEVs and vehicle efficiency in selected countries, 2010, USD million . 167 Figure 9-55: Public spending on electric vehicle RD&D category for selected countries, USD million, 2008 t2011 168 Figure 9-56: Parabolic trough . 172 Figure 9-57: Parabolic dish reflector 173 Figure 9-58: Central receiver system 174 Figure 9-59: CESA-1 Central tower test facility at Plataforma de Almeira, Spain 175 Figure 9-60: Schematic for CSP plant with molten salt storage 177 Figure 10.1: Typical conventional central generation power plant 184 Figure 10. 2: Typical co-generation 'combined heat and power' plant 184 Figure 10.3: Echogen Power Systems' ScCO2 Power Generating Cycle 200kWe - 300kWe (net) Heat Engine System 185 Figure 10.4: Organic Rankine Cycle 186 Figure 10.5: Waste heat recovery . 189 Figure 10.6: Ecomotors' opposition-piston opposed-cylinder engine 190 Figure 10.7: Illustrative cost/benefit timplement hybridisation technologies 192 Figure 10.8: XL Hybrid technology 192 Figure 10.9: Energy harvesting wireless sensor solution from EnOcean . 194 Figure 10.10: Energy harvesting wireless sensor network 194 Figure 10.11: PassivSystems products 195 Figure 10.12: eMonitorTM c-Series system . 197 Figure 10.13: BuildingIQ in action . 200 Figure 10.14: Cost savings and CO2 savings for different energy efficient and renewable technologies 201 Figure 10.15: Average project payback time for different energy efficient building products in years 203 Figure 10.16: SD250 model . 205 Figure 10.17: SD10 model 205 Figure 10.18: S1 model 206 Figure 10.19: EcoFit module 207 Figure 10.20: Encelium Energy Control System (ECS) 213 Figure 10.21: Redwood Systems lighting platform 215 Figure 10.22: Tenrehte Technologies' PICOwatt device 216 Figure 10.23: Modlet 217 Figure 10.24: Snapshot of the GridConnect dashboard 228 Figure 10.25: Calmac's ICEBANK . 236 Figure 10.26: How the Cooleradworks 237 Figure 10.27: Ice Bear system 240